Analyst says Apple should scrap the iPhone
I'm getting used to mixed reactions about the iPhone. It's getting to be a bit like Marmite - you either love it or hate it. However, one analyst has gone as far as to suggest that Apple scraps the iPhone altogether - before it's even launched.
John C Dvorak seems fed up with the hype, saying that the iPhone will be just 'another phone in a crowded market' and stating that Apple's previous successes have been in emerging or moribund markets.
"Now compare that effort and overlay the mobile handset business. This is not an emerging business. In fact it's gone so far that it's in the process of consolidation with probably two players dominating everything, Nokia and Motorola."
I think Sony Ericcson, LG, Research in Motion, and others, would have an issue with this, but that's not the main issue here.
The problem here is that while Apple can play the fashion game as well as any company, there is no evidence that it can play it fast enough. These phones go in and out of style so fast that unless Apple has half a dozen variants in the pipeline, its phone, even if immediately successful, will be passé within 3 months.
The point John seems to miss is that the iPhone technology is a base for future developments. Though the iPhone is a gorgeous piece of hardware, that in itself is not the main issue. There's new touch and sensor technology, OS X on the phone, and the fact that the iPhone interface has the potential to become anything Apple want it to be.
Look at the iPod - that didn't stay the same, and evolved, but all subsequent devices were based on the solid foundation of a revolutionary product.
There is no likelihood that Apple can be successful in a business this competitive. Even in the business where it is a clear pioneer, the personal computer, it had to compete with Microsoft and can only sustain a 5% market share.
I think the Microsoft and PC issue is a very different one. No-one can grab a large market share of the operating system market thanks to Windows.
What Apple risks here is its reputation as a hot company that can do no wrong. If it's smart it will call the iPhone a "reference design" and pass it to some suckers to build with someone else's marketing budget. Then it can wash its hands of any marketplace failures.
Hey, even die-hard Apple fans know that the company have already done some things wrong, and Apple already has a very mixed bag of opinions from the public and analysts alike. Why on earth would Apple give away something that it 100% believes in.
John even thinks that they should 'dump' the iPhone on Samsung. Bizarre.
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