iPhonic interview with Chris Averill, CADinteractive: How the iPhone will fare in Europe
Last week, before the mad rush for iPhones over the weekend, I caught up with Chris Averill, Managing Director of CADinteractive, for a chat about Apple, the iPhone, and their place in the mobile industry.
About CADinteractive
CADinteractive is one of the UK's leading usability & accessibility research companies, having helped to launch BT Vision last year, and having worked on the Virgin Lobster, with 3, and Sky, amongst many others.
Chris is well placed to comment on the iPhone and its place in the market, given that he and his company are experts in interface design and testing, and knowing what works and what doesn't.
iPhone: Make or break for Apple
Chris believes that the iPhone will be the "make or break" device for Apple.
Although the iPhone will do well in the United States - where the current crop of mobile phones are fairly poor and consumers are thus used to mediocre offerings - the same is unlikely to be true in European and Asian markets, where consumers have higher expectations.
Apple and UK/European mobile markets
Chris also raised concerns that Apple have no expertise with the UK and European mobile markets.
The UK has a complex operator and reseller structure, and yet Apple has no obvious existing relationship with any of them.
Chris said that the mobile operators are second only to broadcasters as being a nightmare to get information from, and to work with. Apple don't have detailed knowledge or experience and will struggle to gain a foothold in the market.
The nature of mobile technology is that lots of small things change quickly. The larger players, such as Nokia, LG, Sony Ericsson, and Motorola, are big enough and have enough experience to churn out decent models that meet current trends.
Chris cited the example of Nokia, briefly knocked off the number one slot by Motorola introducing flip phones. Nokia's might meant that they were soon able to respond, release new phones, and reclaim the top spot.
Apple are effectively a "one trick pony" - and though they might release one iPhone every six months, they're not working with the same volume or diversity of models as the major mobile players, who maybe each release between four and six new phone models every six months.
Apple are also at risk from both multimedia phones, such as Sony's Walkman phones which Chris thinks are becoming near perfect at what they do, plus a wave of clones coming from China and Asia.
Apple has innovated with the iPhone, but the mobile phone industry will simply replicate its features.
The mobile market is mature: Chris said that there hasn't been a revolutionary device for years, and Apple is highly unlikely to succeed in it in the same way as it dominated the portable music player market.
Chris also noted that because the likes of Sony Ericsson, LG, Nokia, and Motorala now have such control over the mobile operators, others can't get a look in. He noted that BT had tried to woo hardware manufacturers, but couldn't guarantee consumer numbers so failed. Apple face the reverse situation - they have the hardware but it could be hard for them to find someone to sell them - the likes of Orange and Vodafone won't risk stepping on the toes of the big mobile manufacturers who bring most of their business.
If Apple try to sell an unlocked, independent iPhone, it will likely cost between £300 and £400. Not many people will spend that amount on what is effectively an iPod-like phone replacement with a poor battery.
Apple's reputation with first generation, non-US products
The Apple TV - Chris's current doorstop - is a classic example of Apple misunderstanding internationalisation - it's virtually useless in the UK at present because content is only available in North America. This dents people's trust in Apple, and also means that consumers will be wary at buying the first version of Apple hardware.
Going cross-platform - give away iLife
Chris believes that Apple could achieve greater success with the iPhone if they were to develop a cross-platform, free version of their iLife suite.
Though the iPhone will synchronise with both PC and Mac via iTunes, and work with Outlook on the PC, Chris thinks that it would appeal to more users if iLife were to be bundled free with the iPhone and could run on both PC and Mac.
It would encourage covergence. Very few other mobile phones offer this at the moment. Nokia has come close with its "Nokia Life" blog system, but it's 3rd party software, and has to be paid for, so is off-putting to consumers.
At the same time, Chris says that many consumers don't currently want or understand convergence.
3G?
Despite criticism of Apple from others in the industry for not making a 3G iPhone, Chris says that 3G isn't really happening in the UK at present.
The big barrier is the lack of flat data plans. Though Vodafone, T-Mobile and 3 now offer flat rate plans, Orange and O2 still don't. Operators have to provide flat rate data plans before the iPhone (or any device that extols the mobile Internet) can become truly successful.
User Interfaces
Apple will make other mobile operators sit up and take notice when it comes to the user interfaces on mobile devices.
Most current phones have awful user interfaces where it's difficult to find and use functions. Apple develops stunning interfaces that will force other players to create decent interfaces.
Conclusion
The iPhone will likely appeal to a fairly small niche, and Apple will struggle trying to break into the UK and European mobile market because of a lack of knowledge and experience, and because of the power and market share of the major mobile phone manufacturers.
Apple also often fail to understand how to internationalise their products, therefore damaging their reputation and frustrating consumers.
The iPhone is a great product, and Apple produce amazing user experiences, but everyone else will replicate and improve upon it very quickly.
Chris Averill is Managing Director of CADInteractive
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